I Don't Mind What Harbaugh Said

When someone first told me that Baltimore Raven's Head Coach John Harbaugh said something about the Patriots and SpyGate and asterisks, I got pissed. How dare he? That bastard!

Then I looked past the inflammatory headlines, and actually heard what Harbaugh said. And it wasn't that bad. Here's the quote:

"In the end, everything is brought before the light of day, when it’s all said and done. What happens, even the thing in New England, no matter whether those things had any impact on whether they won their championships or not, they got asterisks now. It’s been stained.

"To me, it’s never worth it. You have to figure out ways to use the rules to your advantage, you have to figure out ways to make the most of everything. We have new work rules here as far as what we can do and what we can’t do with our players, and we're going to make the most of it. What we're finding is, man, maybe we can do some things even better than we did before, because these rules make us focus more on some things that we didn’t focus on before. You just have to make them work for you. That’s what success is in the world. You have to find a way to do things better than somebody else. But if you’re cheating, in the end, you’re going to get discredited. It’s not worth it."

To me, as a Patriots fan, the key words he said are "...whether those things had any impact on whether they won their championships or not..." That's a qualifying statement. That tells us that he's not belittling the Patriots' Super Bowl wins, he's not saying they should have asterisks attached to those wins. He's talking about the perception of those championships. How some people view those championships.

And he's right. Many people do not think the Patriots truly deserved to win those titles. I disagree with them, but I can't deny that such people exist.

And these people are not just the Arlen Specters of the world, not just whiny Jets fans. There are people inside the NFL too. And Harbaugh would know better than any of us what the perception of those titles are in the League.

Harbaugh was being asked about the Saints, he mentioned New England as another example of a team that cheated (yes, the Patriots cheated, breaking the rules is cheating. I don't think it affected the outcome of games, but it was a violation of the rules). All he talked about was perception. He didn't talk about how HE saw Belichick and the Patriots. He talked about how Belichick and the Pats are seen by OTHERS.

And he wasn't incorrect.

-The Captain

Patriots Draft Defensively

The Patriots selected 7 players in the 2012 NFL Draft. And 6 of them play on the defensive side of the ball. Two linemen, a linebacker, and three defensive backs. Although one of those DBs is essentially a pure special teamer.

We know about Jones and Hightower. The fanbase seems pleased with that. But I'm sure they'll find something to bitch and moan about once Training Camp starts.

In the 2nd round, the Patriots drafted Tavon Wilson. Which shocked the experts who projected Wilson to go in the 6th or 7th round, if at all. Certainly not with the 48th overall pick in the draft. He wasn't even invited to the NFL Combine in Indianapolis.

Wilson is strong and versatile. He's 6' 0" and 205 pounds. He started three years at Illinois and switched between safety and cornerback. He also plays special teams. The more you learn about him, the more he seems like the type of guy the Patriots want and need.

Last season, the Patriots' defensive backfield was a hodgepodge, to put it politely. The 8-15 yard curl in the flat was open on every down. The Pats' secondary focused on not allowing 40 yard TD passes, and didn't even bother to cover huge swaths of territory underneath that.

They need versatility. They need reliability. Wilson is not a shutdown corner. That type of guy would be great, but I don't know if that would be enough to solve the Patriots' problems. Huge holes in the zone would still be there.

Wilson seems like a smart player. One that's easy to coach. The Pats' DBs last season were not very savvy. The defense had to be simplified to suit their talents and their awareness.

This guy will find his way onto the field. He'll play special teams, obviously, and the Pats' DB depth chart presents an opportunity for any young player to work his way to a starting role.

In the 3rd round, the Patriots took Jake Bequette, a defensive end from Arkansas. The all SEC pass rusher recorded 10 sacks his senior season. He's 6' 5" 271 pounds and can play as an OLB or a DE.

He missed 3 games because of a hamstring issue. And the word is he's not that great as an edge rusher. But I'll take an All-SEC defensive end with the 90th overall pick. That's fine. He seems like he has tremendous upside. And even if he doesn't fully reach that level, his versatility will help him find a role on the team.

The Pats didn't pick again until the 6th round. They took Nate Ebner, who didn't play football in high school. He played rugby. And he walked on to the Ohio State football team and became a special teams specialist. He was drafted as a safety but only played three snaps at that position his senior year.

Ebner's true position is a special teams psycho. He claims to enjoy the "mayhem" of kickoff coverage most of all.

Rugby players are crazy.

In the 6th round, the odds are slim of drafting a guy who will make an impact in one of the 22 regular positions. So draft an insane rugby player and put him on special teams. You're much more likely to get a positive contribution from him than from a 6th round RB or offensive tackle.

And maybe if the Dolphins try to get clever with some sort of Wildcat 2.0 formation, or if the Jets use Tebow in the option, Ebner can use his rugby experience to counter that. Especially the option, which is very similar to rugby plays.

The Patriots drafted a project/accused criminal in the 7th round. Alfonzo Dennard has ridiculous talent, and was a shutdown corner in the Big Ten for Nebraska. But he ended his senior season with an ejection in the CapitalOne Bowl.

Then he had a disappointing combine.

Oh, and he was in jail as recently as last week for resisting being placed in custody and assaulting a police officer. The story is that he was being belligerent outside a bar, was asked twice by police to leave the area, and was later seen pushing and punching another person in the same area. Police tried to put him in custody, he resisted, more pushing and punching with the cops, and hence the arrest.

This is a first round talent taken in the 7th round. This guy might sound like a bit of a loser, but the Patriots can't lose on this pick.

I have no idea how well Belichick and the locker room leaders will do to help Dennard to get his act together. But if he doesn't, he won't get 3 chances like he did with the cops in Lincoln. He'll get 1.

In the entire NFL Draft, Dennard might have the biggest gap between his potential upside and his potential downside. He's talented enough to be in the Pro Bowl. He's also capable of winding up in prison. Belichick is probably thrilled with this pick. And so is whoever coaches football at the Correctional Institution in Walpole.

The Patriots took a receiver with their last pick. Jeremy Ebert out of Northwestern. He caught 75 passes his senior season, for 1,065 yards and 11 touchdowns. That's nothing to dismiss lightly. He might have trouble finding a roster spot considering how many people are vying for a spot on the WR list.

He's 5' 11" and 200 pounds, but this guy might just find his way on the roster in September.

I definitely give this pick two thumbs up (get it? because his name is Ebert). As I give to the whole draft. Exciting playmakers in the first round, a guy who seems like a reliable defensive back in the 2nd, an All-SEC pass rusher in the 3rd, then it got weird. A rugby player in the 6th, an alleged criminal in the 7th, then a guy with great numbers to end the 7th.

It's always tough to gauge the success of a draft before any of these players even get numbers assigned to them, let alone take the field, let alone play a game. But I think the Patriots have drastically improved the potential quality of their defense. And if just one or two of these guys work out, the Patriots' defensive unit will be much better in 2012.

-The Captain

Patriots Shock Everyone By Doing Exactly What Fans Wanted

Yesterday I wrote a lengthy preemptive explanation of how the Patriots draft. I was expecting the fans of New England to be pissed today, as they usually are the day after the Patriots' activities in the first round.

Instead, the fans are happy. I'm happy. And I think that the Mayan end-of-the-world prophecy is happy too.

When Roger Goodell announced that the Patriots had made a move up in the draft, he might as well have been opening the Fifth Seal of the Apocalypse.

The Pats sent their 27th overall pick, along with their 3rd round pick (93rd overall) to the Bengals for the 21st pick. And they selected DE Chandler Jones from Syracuse.

Jones is a big man (6' 5" and 265 pounds) that has a big frame he can grow into. He only played 7 games of his junior year due to a knee injury in the middle of the season. But he totaled 4.5 sacks, 38 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and an interception. Which he returned for 32 yards.

He's an edge rusher. And if he lives up to his potential, the combination of him and Vince Wilfork could present opposing offensive lines with serious problems.

Minutes later, as the First Round zoomed by, the Patriots did it again. They made a deal with Denver, sending their 31st overall pick, along with their 4th rounder (126th overall) in exchange for the 25th pick.

With that, they drafted Alabama linebacker Dont'a Hightower.

Hightower is another large man. 6' 2" and 265. He can do just about everything that a linebacker could do. He can play in all defensive situations. That's something that Bill Belichick covets. And so does Nick Saban. Belichick loves drafting Saban coached players.

With Hightower's flexibility, he'll find a place in the Pats' LB corps. Which was already kind of good, if a little bit dull. Mayo is solid. Spikes showed some sparks last season.

The Pats like to mix up defensive formations, especially up front. Hightower's versatility enhances the Pats' ability to do that.

I'm not a huge fan of trading up. But the Patriots didn't give up much to move ahead. As Belichick noted in his post-draft press conference, they didn't give up any of their 2nd round picks to do so.

And I think these two particular players struck them as good fits. They didn't just get a pass rusher and a linebacker, they got two guys that they feel will excel in Foxborough.

So enjoy it, Pats fans. The Patriots did what you wanted.

Patriots Draft Preview

In this century, the Patriots are the most successful Boston sports team. Yet their moves are also the most heavily critiqued. Perhaps because those moves are the least understood by their fans.

That's not a knock on Pats fans. The football salary cap is the most complex in of all sports. Football rosters are also more than twice the size of the other sports. The pursuit of the best talent at the best price in the NFL is more complicated than buying and selling options on the Taiwanese bond market.

I have no idea who the Patriots will draft tonight. I have no idea what position he'll play. I don't know if the Patriots will make any trades with their picks. But I do know that the Patriots' Draft Day isn't random. There is a system in place, a strategy. There is a certain approach to the Draft that is distinctively Patriot-like.

There's an assessment of value, risk, and payoff. The Pats' War Room is more like the Chicago Board of Trade or New York Stock Exchange than a gathering of football minds.

As an outsider, I've tried to understand how and why the Patriots draft the way they do. And these are the rules/guidelines/strategies that I see:

TRADING FOR A BETTER PICK IS USUALLY A WORSE RISK:

Fans lament that the Patriots don't trade up and draft superior talent. There's a good reason they don't, and it isn't just to hoard picks for the future. There's a risk involved with every pick. In the NFL Draft, you're only selecting talent. With each player, there's a significant chance that they won't work out in the NFL. There's no way to predict how a player will react to the independence, to the money, to the competition, to being a big fish in a big pond.

If you trade up in the Draft, you are going to acquire superior talent. Which means the potential payoff is higher. But you're also risking more. Since you used other picks to move up, you're paying a higher price. Unnecessarily so. It's like betting more on a roulette wheel. You'll win more if you win, but lose more if you lose.

If the pick doesn't work, you'll also have inferior remaining picks to make up for the shortcoming. So not only do you risk more when you trade-up, you have weaker insurance to recover if the pick doesn't work out.

And typically to move up in the draft, you have to overpay. Look at what the Redskins paid to draft RG3. Even if RG3 turns out to be a superstar, the price was still ridiculous. And too much of a risk. RG3 might work out in Washington, but it's still a bad move. Bad moves sometimes work out. Good moves sometimes don't.

FUTURE PICKS ARE WORTH THE SAME AS PICKS NOW:
Speaking of the RG3 trade...

You see these kinds of deals all the time. Team A sends future picks to get Team B's superior picks in the current draft. And what you also see is the Patriots emerging from each draft with a load of future picks in their pocket.

Some teams seem to think that a 2013 pick is less valuable than a 2012 pick. And it isn't. They're worth the same. You can draft the same caliber of player and retain their talent for the same amount of time.

We're all fans and we all want our team to improve as much as possible right now on Draft Day. And every team has some area that it really needs to improve. But the need to improve will be just as pressing next April. The value of a pick now is the same as a pick next year. The Patriots take advantage of teams that are desperate to improve right now and are willing to sell future picks for a low cost.

Let's say I offered you a Hawaii vacation for $1,000. Does it matter if you take the vacation now or a year from now? Not really, not in the long run. And now let's say I offered you the same vacation package for $1,000 if you go now, or $800 if you go next year. Which would you take?

TWO PICKS ARE BETTER THAN ONE (AND NOT BECAUSE TWO PLAYERS ARE BETTER THAN ONE, THEY USUALLY AREN'T):
Two good picks are better than one great pick because of risk. As I mentioned earlier, each player drafted might not work out in the NFL. There's unpredictability. A way to manage that risk is to make more picks.

The Patriots love to increase their number of picks. And it's not because they want more players. It's because they want to have a better chance of getting players that will produce in the NFL.

Let's say I have $1,000 to gamble on NFL games. I could put it all on one game. But something crazy could happen, like an injury or a missed field goal. I don't want to put all my eggs in one basket. It's safer to bet $200 on 5 games. A crazy thing might still happen, but one or even two crazy things won't mess up my entire day of betting.

That's kind of what the Patriots do with their vast pool of draft picks. They know that each player has a chance of failure. So they'd rather spread that chance of failure around instead of hoping one guy works out. It's a safer, smarter way to invest.

And that's what these picks are: investments.

DON'T DRAFT BASED ON POSITION:

This is a classic gripe of Patriots fans. The Pats don't draft based on their needs or wants at certain positions.

The Patriots draft the best talent available when they pick.

If you have the 30th pick, and you need a linebacker, and there's one available. Why not pick him? If he's worth a 30th overall pick then fine. But if he's worth the 40th pick then it's a bad move to take him.

Why reach? Why use the 30th pick to take someone who is worth a 40th pick? Picks are like money. And players are like groceries. It's like spending $10 on a head of lettuce just because you need a salad to complete a meal. Just go without the salad and buy more pork because it's on sale. You won't go hungry. You'll just have a different looking meal that's stronger in another area.

Besides, drafting based on what you need tends to be a bad idea anyway, even if the price is right. There is a significant chance that the player drafted won't work out. So you spend that pick to get someone, he doesn't work out, and you're in exactly the same situation only you've lost that pick.

If you really need help at a position, it's better to sign and trade for players who have NFL experience. It's much easier to predict how well they will fill that need.

You'll end every draft with needs. You'll start every season with needs. You should try to fill them. But if you overspend picks and cap space to fill that need, you'll just create needs at other positions. And you'll have fewer resources to try to address those needs.

The Patriots need a CB, for instance. If they acquired Asante Samuel and his hefty contract, they'd address their need at CB but create a need somewhere else because of all the cap money Samuel would consume.

You don't help yourself, you hurt yourself.

We're all fans, and we're all excited to see the Patriots improve themselves. We get giddy at the idea of some star linebacker wearing a Patriots jersey. But the guys running the Pats' Draft aren't fans. This is their business. And they treat it like a business.

Fans like to point out anecdotal evidence of picks not working out. I know 98.5's Felger and Mazz were heavily criticizing the Patriots' Draft strategy yesterday. I think it makes sense. I think it works out. It builds consistency. The Patriots don't draft amazingly well, but they always find themselves rich with picks. Which allows them to stay competitive year after year.

And for this year's Draft, the only thing I can predict is that Pats fans will be upset after tonight.

-The Captain

Captain's Thoughts: Bobby Valentine, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia

I know I'm a little late with my opinion here, but since this will be an ongoing story throughout the season, I felt compelled to write a post about it.

Bobby Valentine said this about Kevin Youkilis:

"I don't think he's as physically or emotionally into the game as he has been in the past for some reason."

Then Youkilis said this in response:

"That's not what I see. I go out every day and play as hard as I can. I take every ground ball in the morning, take every at-bat like it's my last. I don't think my game has changed at all. I still get upset with myself and still get mad. That's just not how I go about my game of baseball. Never have, never will."

Then Dustin Pedroia added:

"I know that Youk plays as hard as anybody I've ever seen in my life. I have his back, and his teammates have his back. We know how hard he plays. I don't really understand what Bobby's trying to do. But that's really not the way we go about our stuff here. I'm sure he'll figure that out soon.

"Maybe in Japan or something... Over here in the U.S., we're on a three-game winning streak, we want to feel good and keep it rolling. We feel we have a good team and we've just got to get each other's backs and play together. Because if you don't do that, I don't care what sport you're playing, you're not going to win."

What really bugs me is that three guys who work together, practice together, travel together, and stay in the same hotel on the road together are now using the media to communicate. That's just weird. It's like two people talking to each other through a third mutual friend. Tell Bobby I said this. Tell Dustin I said this.

Actually, it's more like people who use their Facebook status as a way to publicly vent to all the world about one specific person.

That's what Valentine brings, though. He thinks he's the Master Media Manipulator, and that he can use the sports media as a managerial tool. He thinks he can motivate slackers with comments like this.

Good luck with that. It never works as well as you think it will. As this current incident is thoroughly demonstrating. And it's never panned out for Bobby in the past. But Bobby probably blames somebody else for that. Or maybe now he thinks he's learned how to do it right.

However, using the media as a tool does seem to fit in with the Red Sox organization and how they conduct business. Just ask Terry Francona. Pedro Martinez. Johnny Damon. Nomar Garciaparra. Et cetera.

I think the way Bill Belichick treats the media is the wisest way to do it. Give them nothing, then they have nothing to use against your interests. The media is like a rabid chimpanzee. It's dangerous. Valentine thinks he can tame it and use it as a weapon. But it's smarter to just stay away. Because it will turn on you in a heartbeat.

There is no advantage gained by trying to do anything through the media. And I know baseball isn't football, but Francona didn't give the media anything either. Everything was kept "in house." And I think that's the best place to keep things.

But Valentine overestimates his own abilities. He thinks he is the most important man in a Red Sox uniform. He isn't. No baseball manager is. He thinks he can harness the rabid chimpanzee.

In some weird way, I kind of admire Bobby's desire to fix every little problem the Sox are having. He wanted to see Youkilis start hitting. So he did something about it. But I have serious reservations with how he went about attempting to "motivate" him. And the fact is, Kevin Youkilis is the best person to get Kevin Youkilis back to his old form. Valentine doesn't know his limitations. He doesn't even recognize that he has any.

Even though Valentine apologized, expect more stories with similar tone to this one. Bobby cannot resist. He's addicted to himself. He cannot turn down an opportunity to be responsible for something. He invented the wrap. He'll take responsibility for Sox losses, he'll also take credit for wins. I'm sure he'll even take credit for the nice weather we had today.

-The Captain