Daisuke Starting Saturday in Boston, Bard Starting Friday in Pawtucket

Daisuke Matsuzaka will be back in Boston just about a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He last pitched for the Red Sox in May of 2011. He's made six rehab starts, totaling 37 innings. He had a 3.65 ERA, 31 hits, 9 walks, and 30 strikeouts. He also had high pitch counts. His final rehab outing lasted 2 innings (it had been scheduled for 3) on Tuesday. He threw 40 pitches.

On Saturday, he'll face 7-2 Gio Gonzalez and the Washington Nationals. Even though the Nats are in 1st place, their offense isn't very good. 26th in runs scored. And thankfully for Daisuke, 22nd in OBP, and 14th in walks.

With most pitchers, some things to watch in their first start back are throwing strikes, working with rhythm, being efficient, keeping people off the bases, is their fastball fast and their curveball curving. Of course, Daisuke is not most pitchers. He can have a good start and walk 8 batters.

What should we expect from Daisuke? Frankly (and not surprisingly), my expectations are low. This is a guy who was brilliant for two years (33-15, 3.72 ERA his first two seasons), then ugly for two (16-15, 5.03 ERA). Any other starting pitcher developed normally in the minors would have been dismissed as a flash-in-the-pan that was figured out by MLB hitters, and couldn't cut it in the Majors. But since Daisuke did so well in the quadruple-A equivalent Japanese League, he still is expected to do well over here.

Negativity aside, there is at least potential for him to be good. We've seen it. And if he's not good, he can at least be serviceable, pitching 5 innings (with a 120 pitch count), and giving the Sox a chance to win. That's more than can be said for Daniel Bard, who Daisuke will replace in the rotation.

Bard will be making a start in AAA Pawtucket on Friday, as the PawSox face the Indianapolis Indians (who are the Pirates' AAA affiliate). Although it is technically a start, he will not be working as a traditional starter. His appearances will be short. The Red Sox claim that this is so he can focus on getting himself "back to being an elite pitcher." That's what Ben Cherington said. This minor league stint is about Bard getting back "on track."

In other words, Bard will be pitching short outings until he's shown the quality we've seen from him in the past. If he does well and Matsuzaka struggles, Bard can return to the rotation and give starting another go. If Matsuzaka settles in, then Bard can return as a reliever.

The Sox are being very diplomatic with how they're discussing Bard. They don't want to crush his confidence. They need Bard to fix his problems before he can return as a reliever or a starter. Matsuzaka gives them an easy way to be kind to Bard and say "We have 5 starters already, but we need your quality in the pen." It's sort of like a girl saying "let's just be friends." You don't feel quite so bad if she's already got a boyfriend.

-The Captain

Bard to Minors, What Should the Sox Do With Him?

The Sox sent Daniel Bard to AAA Pawtucket yesterday, activating Darnell McDonald off the DL. In Bard's last start, he only managed to go 1.2 innings, allowing 5 runs off 6 walks and a homerun. In 55 innings, he's walked 37, struck out 34, and has an ERA of 5.24 and a WHIP of 1.62. As a reliever last year, he had a 3.33 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He only walked 24 in 73 innings.

It's not working for him as a starter. Everyone knows it. Even him. He wants to work out his problems up here in Boston. The Sox want him to work them out in Pawtucket. Frankly, the Sox can't afford his struggles anymore. It's June, the Sox are one game over .500, they're trying to go on a run to separate themselves from the tightly packed AL East. Now's not the time for Bard to work out his problems in games that count in the standings.

I think the Sox know that the starting experiment is over. They won't come out and say it publicly. But their plan for Bard in Pawtucket involves him throwing some 2 inning stints. Doesn't that sound like they'll be converting him to a reliever?

If they really wanted him to continue to start, they might have sent him down to Fort Myers to pitch some simulated games, to focus entirely on his mechanics and not worry about getting hitters out.

Meanwhile, Bard will likely be replaced in the rotation by Matsuzaka. And if Matsuzaka pitches well, and if Buchholz continues to pitch well, the Sox can tell Bard that there's no more room in the rotation, so he might as well go to the pen. If Matsuzaka falters, or another starter gets hurt, the Sox can continue to tinker with Bard.

The Sox are saying that Bard is dropping his arm slot, and that's affecting his performance. Sounds reasonable. I'm not a pitching coach. All I know is that his fastball is slower, he's not pitching to contact, and he only has 2 of his 3 pitches working on any given night. If he can solve those problems, he can start. But maybe those problems are always going to be unsolvable for Bard. Some pitchers just aren't meant to be starters. The Sox tried to make him one when he was first drafted. It didn't work. Too many walks. It's not working now, either.

The Sox bullpen isn't as good as people think it is. There is room for Bard out there. In 2 weeks, the Sox will have an idea what Matsuzaka can give them. They'll also know which relievers they want to keep and which one they're willing to let go. Bard can work on his mechanics, and maybe he'll figure it all out and return to the rotation in glory. More likely, he'll return to the bullpen where he's thrived in the past.

-The Captain

Another Strong Start For Dice-K

Daisuke Matsuzaka, back in the Pawtucket rotation after receiving a cortisone injection a little more than a week ago, had his second straight outing in which he gave up almost nothing. After allowing just one hit in 5 shutout innings on Saturday, Dice-K allowed just two hits in 5 1/3 innings yesterday. He allowed just one run (HR), struck out four and walked none. In his last two starts, Matsuzaka has allowed one run in 10 1/3 innings (0.87 ERA), with opponents hitting .091 against him. In 10 1/3 innings, he's struck out six and walked one.

My guess is that if Buchholz isn't the worst pitcher on the planet that the spot for Dice-K will be Bard's. Bard can only pitch so many inning this year, and we all know he is too valuable to just shut down, so I expect him to be sent to the bullpen at some point. When he does I think that's where Dice-K slides in. If Buchholz is terrible then maybe he would be sent down, and Dice-K could go there and Cook could eventually take Bard's spot, but I think option 1 is more likely.

The Matsuzaka Mystery Continues

When reading stories about Daisuke Matsuzaka's health, I feel like I'm reading a mystery novel. Is he healthy? Is he in pain? Is he telling the truth about his injuries? He's a soap opera spoken i foreign language. It's very hard to figure out what's happening.

Daisuke was recently placed on the 60 day DL, and his rehabs in AAA Pawtucket were cancelled due to pain in his right trapezius. People were wondering if Matsuzaka would pitch again in 2012.

They got a quick, surprising answer. He'll be pitching for the PawSox against Toledo on Saturday night.

So what is the story with this guy? Is he still feeling pain and lying about it so he can return to the mound? He's told similar stories in the past. And while the desire to pitch is commendable, the lack of honesty is annoying.

I don't think the Red Sox properly understood what they were getting into with Daisuke. They thought they knew how to convert him from throwing 140 pitches once a week to throwing 100 every 5th day. They took a guy whose body was accustomed to one style of training, and instantaneously switched styles.

I think all the throwing Daisuke did in Japan was what kept his arm strong. Without that exercise, his health deteriorated. So then he'd get shut down. Which meant even less exercise. So the health problems would reoccur.

It reminds me of Formula 1 racing cars, actually. An F1 car must go fast to be safe. If it goes too slow, the tires don't heat up, so they don't grip the road, so you crash and die. A Formula 1 car is dangerous when driven slowly. And the less Matsuzaka throws, the weaker he gets. It seems counter-intuitive, until you understand how abnormal of a thing/person you're talking about.

Daisuke needed a heavy workload to maintain sufficient arm strength and health to avoid all these little problems that have nibbled away at his career.

I'm not a doctor though. I have no idea what the Sox should have done with him. But neither did the Sox. They were exploring uncharted waters without a compass, and acted as if they knew what the hell they were doing. They didn't experiment, they didn't test, they didn't research. They just put Daisuke on a 100 pitch count, severely limited his throwing between starts, and called it good medicine.

It hasn't been.

-The Captain

Red Sox 6, Orioles 5

The Sox are 22-22 and just took 2 of 3 from the Orioles. Why am I so happy at this? Because I like the way the Sox won these games. And I prefer consistently winning 2 of 3 as opposed to stretches of 5 straight wins then 5 straight losses.

I'm not as optimistic about Daniel Bard. He's looking more and more like Daisuke Matsuzaka. He's not throwing enough strikes (49 strikes, 41 balls today), he's walking batters (4 more today, he's now walked more batters than he's struck out), his pitch count is getting high early, and he never seems to have the same pitches working for him from start to start.

It's not been a major problem. So far. He's not getting crushed. He's not wild. He got two very timely double-plays yesterday that helped him avoid disaster. And with runners in scoring position, he held the O's at bay.

It doesn't seem like a long-term successful way to pitch, though. This is his fourth start that he's failed to go 6 innings. He's tied with Justin Masterson for the 6th most walks in all of baseball.

Bard only allowed 2 earned runs. The homerun he surrendered today was only the 3rd he's given up all season. That's why the walks haven't been deadly for him. And there's no alternative starting pitcher to take his spot. So for now, Bard is will remain the rotation. He hasn't been a significant problem. Yet.

The offense was provided by some surprise sluggers. Nava, Shoppach, and Podsednik each hit homeruns. Adrian Gonzalez better watch his back because Nava and Shoppach are only 1 homerun behind him. They each have 2. Nava has 2 homers in his last 26 at-bats, and this is after going 171 ABs without a homerun. Podsednik hadn't hit a homerun since September 2010.

All season long, the Sox have been getting contributions from unexpected sources. Doubront has been the most reliable starter in the rotation. Cody Ross, Ryan Sweeney, Will Middlebrooks, Daniel Nava, Mike Aviles. Hell, Kelly Shoppach is hitting .281. These are the Bill Mueller, Mark Bellhorn kind of guys that added to the star power of the 2004 Red Sox. The glue that held the big pieces together.

Now we just need the star pitchers to consistently pitch like stars, the high-priced free agent slugger to earn his pay, and the bullpen to figure itself out.

Sox have an off-day, then host the Rays for 3 over the weekend. It's a great opportunity to claw back into the AL East race. The Sox have done well against Tampa Bay this season. Lester faces Alex Cobb, a 24 year old who was born in Boston and has made 10 Major League starts, 7 of which were Quality Starts. That makes me feel uneasy.

-The Captain

More Concerns With Dice-K

Daisuke Matsuzaka re-started his Triple-A rehab assignment on Monday for Pawtucket. Matsuzaka lasted 4 2/3 innings for the PawSox and struck out four batters with three walks as he did not give up a run. Matsuzaka allowed just two hits in the performance in his third rehab start. Matsuzaka required 87 pitches and threw 49 (56.3 percent) for strikes. Overall, in his three starts, Matsuzaka has a 2.84 ERA, 14 strikeouts and five walks in 12 2/3 innings. He has yet to pitch five complete innings

Not bad. You would like to see him throw more strikes, but we have come to kind of expect that from Dice-K. What is concerning is there are reports that his velocity dropped during his outing, and he even admitted there are days where his elbow feels better then other days. You don't want to go overboard here, and start thinking he needs to be shutdown or anything, but I do feel this shows he needs more time in the minors. He needs to show that the elbow is 100%, because calling him up to the majors and having him push it isn't good for anyone. I am with DP that I think Dice-K could actually be a very nice addition at some point this season, but we may need to delay that a little bit.

Dice-K Makes First Rehab Start

Dice-K made his first rehab start for the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and it went pretty damn well. Dice-K was able to 4 2/3 innings, he threw 74 pitches, 44 for strikes, and went to a three-ball count on only three of the 17 batters he faced allowed only three hits, walked two and struck out seven.

The stat line really doesn't mean as much as the fact that he was clocked consistently around 93 MPH, and was able to already throw 74 pitches. Dice-K is scheduled to pitch a total of 5 games in the minors before being called up. What happens when he is called up is a good question at this point.

The Red Sox have already said they are going to put Cook in the bullpen for now. Dice should be back the last week in May. At that point I think 2 things could happen. One, Buchholz could continue to struggle and the Red Sox will send him down to get his shit together. The other is that the Red Sox will screw Doubront and send him to the bullpen. I really don't think Bard is going to the bullpen for now. I think he is going to get his shot, and they will ride him until they give him a serious reason not to.

I think Bard will be back in the bullpen at the end of the season just because there is only so many innings he will be able to go this year, but I do think he will be a starter until at least August.