With all the Red Sox troubles this year it is surprising to see that they are 3-1 against the Rays this season outscoring them a total of 31 to 11 (their one loss was a 1-0 loss). Boston comes into the series on fire outscoring opponents 34-8 over its 5 consecutive victories and allowed only 3 runs over the last four of those wins.
Yet, here comes Buchholz to the mound. Buchholz has been given the most runs per nine innings in the majors (9.69), which is why he has the impressive record of 4-1 on the year, but when you look at the fact has the highest ERA (8.31) and highest opponent batting average (.337) among qualifying major leaguers you start to be less impressed. Last start was his best of the year and even that wasn't all that impressive as he let up a season-low 4 runs (3 ER), 8 hits and 3 walks in 6 1/3 innings against the Indians. Buchholz gave up five runs over seven innings to Tampa Bay on April 14 but got the win in a 13-5 rout at Fenway Park (typical Buchholz luck). He's 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in his last 4 matchups with the Rays and 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his last 4 starts at Tropicana Field.
Going against Buchholz is Jeremy Hellickson, who I think very highly of. Jeremy Hellickson (3-0, 2.95), hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a start since facing Boston last month. Against Boston though he hasn't been very good, he is 2-1 with a 4.99 ERA and last time he faced them he let up 5 ERs over 5 innings.
I am really torn with who I should pick here, but the Rays are pretty banged up right now and I think Ortiz (.462 with a HR against Hellickson) should be enough to get past the Rays. I really hope Buchholz looks good. If he does you have to feel better about this staff as a whole. If he gets lit up thought, things are looking very rough.
Red Sox win 6-5
Player of the Game: Ortiz
Game starts at 7:10pm
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